As in the previous year, the main sectors in the current year were banks and companies, that directly or indirectly operate their business model with the development of artificial intelligence. Banks enjoyed positively inclined yield curves, economic developments and friendly control bodies. A.I.-relevant industries were swept away in an investment euphoria by the enormous investments of the relevant core companies. It seemed as if there were no limits to the investment in the construction of artificial intelligence. Doubts about energy, water and storage requirements were argued away with money. Profitability from this business model has been placed at the back of the preference position, with the company wanting to finish its investments first. The fact that China has also jumped on this bandwagon and is already fiercely competing with the USA, as the leading A.I.-nation, only suggested that US companies should be protected more strongly due to security concerns. The markets began to doubt the premises and questioned refinancing and growth more closely, the first corrections became apparent. Likewise, banks did not run so smoothly after yield curves began to flatten due to geopolitical uncertainties.
However, little changed in global economic growth for the time being. The USA is growing thanks to A.I., China still has problems with real estate but is tying itself more to Europe and Asia as a partner, and Europe is showing incipient growth due to high financing pots. If only it weren't for inflation, which is now relatively stable due to the still smouldering Iran and Ukraine wars. Central banks are therefore once again called upon to balance the economy and inflation against each other sensitively and with tolerable measures. Not easy.
Thus, politics and sector weighting will probably play the biggest roles in the markets towards the end of the year. The US has its midterm elections, after which national debt and budget will dominate attention, Iran remains the focus of inflation and commodities, currencies are running more strongly against each other and Europe will continue to try to solve the Ukraine problem, even if the US is obviously not urgently interested in it. The stock markets should therefore refocus on the solution variants in sectors, individual stocks and business models. It should be a period in which active managers are likely to receive a little more attention towards passively supported investments again.
Author:
Wolfgang Matejka, CEFA
Managing Director of Matejka & Partner Asset Management GmbH
2 November 2026
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Note
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