September lived up to its reputation as a difficult month for the stock market, bringing an end to the five-month winning streak on European stock markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 2.5%, with only two sub-indices closing in positive territory: oil and gas, and technology. Among the biggest losers were automotive stocks and, in particular, interest-rate-sensitive stock such as real estate. The main headwinds were the resurgence of geopolitical tensions, which caused oil prices to rise significantly. Over the course of the month, Brent briefly exceeded the $108 per barrel mark. Combined with the resulting intensified inflation concerns, this prompted central banks to adopt a more restrictive stance. Both the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised their key interest rates by 25 basis points each and, in light of persistently high inflation, signaled further rate hikes, which we also expect to occur by the end of the year. At the same time, the economy proved largely resilient, not least thanks to continued high levels of investment in artificial intelligence. This combination of robust growth, rising inflation expectations, and a more restrictive monetary policy pushed yields on long-term government bonds to multi-year highs.
The ATX was largely able to weather this challenging environment and closed September with a gain of 1.3%. Contrary to expectations, however, banks were not the main drivers of share price gains this time, even though they should generally benefit from higher interest rate expectations. Rather, the positive performance was largely driven by the continued surge in AT&S shares. The company received a further boost from the announcement of a capacity expansion in the IC substrate segment following the conclusion of a long-term agreement with Marvell. In addition, OMV, which benefited from rising energy prices, also posted solid performance. Other winners included STRABAG, which raised its medium-term targets at its Capital Markets Day, and Verbund, whose stock was able to recoup some of the losses it had suffered in the second quarter. The ATX surpassed the 7,000-point mark for the first time in September. Since the beginning of the year, the Austrian benchmark index had gained nearly 29% as of the end of September, significantly outperforming the major international indices such as S&P 500 (+11%) and the Stoxx 600 (+7%).
However, the rise in stock prices has not yet led to higher valuations, as these have been offset by consistently positive earnings revisions. This is particularly true for the banking and oil and gas sectors. With a current P/E ratio of 11.9x for 2026 and 10.6x for 2027, the ATX continues to trade at a significant discount to the Stoxx 600 (15.0x and 13.8x, respectively), even though its earnings growth is significantly higher. Following an expected earnings growth of 12% in 2026, analysts anticipate a further 14% increase in earnings for the ATX in 2027. For the Stoxx 600, the corresponding earnings growth rates are only in the high single digits (7% and 9%, respectively). The ATX also remains attractive in terms of dividend yield. This is expected to rise from 3.4% in 2026 to 4.2% in 2027. By comparison, the Stoxx 600 offers dividend yields of 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively.
High bond yields put pressure on the stock markets in late September and early October, at least in the short term, as they led to a revaluation of companies. In addition, higher financing costs – particularly in heavily leveraged sectors - are reducing future earnings expectations and, combined with rising energy costs, are weighing on the earnings outlook for many companies. The current consolidation phase in the stock markets reflects these developments and may also be exacerbated by profit-taking following this year’s very strong price performance. Nevertheless – or perhaps precisely for that reason – we continue to view equities as an attractive asset class, although a differentiated assessment of individual sectors is warranted. The composition of the ATX offers an interesting mix that should be well-positioned even in the current market environment. This includes, in particular, banks, energy, and technology stocks, as well as complementary cyclical sectors such as construction & materials. We would therefore not be at all surprised to see the index continue to outperform the broader European market.
Author:
Christoph Schultes, MBA, CIIA
Chief Equity Analyst Austria
Erste Group Bank AG
5 October 2026
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Note
Wiener Börse AG would explicitly like to point out that the data and calculations given in this report are historic values, which do not permit any conclusions as regards future developments or value stability. Price fluctuations and loss of capital are possible in securities trading. The contribution is the personal opinion of the analyst and does not constitute a financial analysis or a recommendation for investment by the exchange operating company, Wiener Börse AG.