In the current year, we have been exposed to some unrest on the capital markets. October also remained volatile. With its self-confidence and unusually harsh agitation, the US administration is putting almost all previous geopolitical agreements to the test. The economic areas around the globe have to adapt to this, develop defense strategies at high speed and the search for one's own self-confidence complements these processes. Europe has shown little clear strength in this context. On the contrary, the internal tension between the individual states became abundantly visible at times and in turn led to the strength of the USA and also China, which consistently opposed the US power game with full threat potential. In this regard, one could also see the recovery of the Chinese economy, which slowly but surely began to free itself from the burdens of the real estate crisis and also began to confidently defend its geopolitical economic positions. These economic policy changes have been supplemented by a still existing war scenario in Ukraine, and a fragile ceasefire has now been agreed in the Middle East, and the emotional relief provided by the release of the last hostages is a positive impact, but the conflict hardly seems to be over. Here, too, it remains explosively underpinned. All these conditions were only able to depress the capital markets to a limited extent. The USA quickly caught up with its underperformance from April, China quickly began to imitate the course of Europe's stock markets and profit-taking in Europe, after the price rises of the current year, left the global stock markets at almost the same level. Only the exchange rate remained shifted. The US dollar, yuan and yen remained weak against the euro.
The bonds saw calm waters, interest rate cuts in the EU and later also in the USA were offset by rising government debt. The refinancing of these huge packages will keep us busy for some time to come. And the ATX, with its recovery movement, motivated by Germany's infrastructure package and also a recurring hope for peace in Ukraine, had a good performance against its European comparison exchanges after a long time.
It is precisely this development that needs to be further promoted. However, the de-bureaucratization and a policy that dares to implement something again in view of the global threats would be prerequisites for this. A wish for the soon to come Christ Child?
Why not.
Author:
Wolfgang Matejka, CEFA
Managing Director of Matejka & Partner Asset Management GmbH
3 November 2025
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Note
Wiener Börse AG would explicitly like to point out that the data and calculations given in this report are historic values, which do not permit any conclusions as regards future developments or value stability. Price fluctuations and loss of capital are possible in securities trading. The contribution is the personal opinion of the analyst and does not constitute a financial analysis or a recommendation for investment by the exchange operating company, Wiener Börse AG.