Despite numerous headwinds, global equity markets are proving very resilient overall. Whilst there are growing doubts about the strong performance since the start of the year, there is certainly no sign of widespread risk aversion. Instead, rotations between sectors and regions are dominating – against the backdrop of an increasingly complex mix of geopolitics, interest rates and structural future trends.
The ongoing conflict in Iran remains a key source of uncertainty. Recurring fears of escalation are leading to higher volatility at times, as market participants fear both disruptions to energy and commodity supplies and broader geopolitical contagion. Consequently, oil prices and energy-intensive sectors in particular are reacting sensitively to news developments and political signals. Recently, the parties to the conflict appeared to be moving closer together again, but it remains to be seen whether and how quickly a binding peace agreement can be signed.
At the same time, yields on the bond markets are once again coming into sharper focus. In both the US and Europe, long-term government bond yields have risen noticeably over the course of the spring. Closely linked to this are expectations regarding the major central banks. Over the past few months, the markets have gradually scaled back their hopes for rapid and numerous interest rate cuts. Instead of a dynamic easing cycle, investors are increasingly anticipating a prolonged period of moderately higher interest rates. Every new inflation or labour market figure is therefore scrutinised to determine whether it offers scope for easing or forces central banks to remain cautious.
Despite this challenging environment, one segment is proving particularly resilient – and in many cases significantly outperforming: companies that benefit directly or indirectly from the megatrend of artificial intelligence (AI). Semiconductor manufacturers, cloud providers and data centre equipment suppliers are among the biggest global winners of recent months. This development is driven by substantial investment programmes in computing power and infrastructure, as well as by the expectation that AI will enable productivity leaps across numerous sectors. The strong price momentum reflects not only current profit growth but also considerable optimism about the future – with correspondingly ambitious valuations.
This presents a mixed picture for investors: on the one hand, the Iran conflict, rising bond yields and unclear expectations regarding the interest rate path are weighing on general risk appetite. On the other hand, the earnings situation for many companies remains solid, and structural growth themes such as AI are providing clear rays of hope – a picture that, incidentally, also applies to the domestic equity market. The ATX has shown enormous resilience and, once the Iran shock had been digested, resumed its upward trend, recently even hitting new all-time highs. And the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has also reached the ATX, where it goes by one name: AT&S. The manufacturer of high-end printed circuit boards and IC substrates has already risen by well over 300 per cent over the course of the year, thereby eclipsing all other Austrian companies.
Author:
Karin Kunrath, Chief Investment Officer at Raiffeisen Capital Management
(Raiffeisen Capital Management is the trading name of Raiffeisen Kapitalanlage-Gesellschaft m.b.H.)
1 June 2026
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Note
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