Despite the measures taken by the US government under President Donald Trump since the beginning of the year, the capital markets have performed encouragingly well and are trading at record highs in some cases. Both the economies and the financial markets have so far been resilient to the change in the geopolitical order. In this environment, emerging markets recorded their best monthly performance since November 2022 and outperformed stock markets in industrialized countries by 6.54 percentage points. Geopolitical instability was a key issue this month. January began with the US arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, effectively taking control of the country's oil exports. Tensions with European and NATO allies escalated in the wake of President Trump's attempt to buy Greenland and his tariff threats, although he ultimately backed down after announcing a framework agreement with NATO. Protests erupted in Iran, and the Trump administration threatened military strikes in response to the crackdown on demonstrators. Domestic politics in the US also played an important role. Trump proposed banning large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, introduced a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, and threatened defense contractors with restrictions on dividends and share buybacks in favor of higher production investment.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman was just one of several decisions that influenced the markets. However, given Warsh's close ties to the president, concerns remain about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Geopolitics (Venezuela, Greenland, Iran) and new US tariff threats drove up risk premiums. This resulted in a rise in oil prices and a veritable gold boom. Not only in nominal terms, but also in real terms – i.e., adjusted for inflation – the price of gold has surpassed its 1980 high. The start of the reporting season was the focus of attention. In terms of massive AI investments, big tech companies were particularly in the spotlight. In the AI cycle, quality testing is becoming increasingly important – which of these companies is capable of credibly translating massive investments into productivity, sales, and margins? The ATX index continued its upward trajectory even after the record stock market year of 2025. The financial sector, industry, and energy are strongly supporting this development.
Higher US tariffs and generally greater uncertainty have not been strong enough to tip the system off balance so far. Global economic growth is on trend, profit growth is high, inflation is only slightly elevated, monetary policies are supportive (high liquidity), and fiscal policies are also loose. In general, the AI boom and solid corporate earnings continue to drive the stock markets.
Author:
Gabriela Tinti, CPM
Head of Desk Equity AT
2 February 2026
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Note
Wiener Börse AG would explicitly like to point out that the data and calculations given in this report are historic values, which do not permit any conclusions as regards future developments or value stability. Price fluctuations and loss of capital are possible in securities trading. The contribution is the personal opinion of the analyst and does not constitute a financial analysis or a recommendation for investment by the exchange operating company, Wiener Börse AG.